From the Comments under the YHOO post:
Question Phil. (And thanks for answering the email I sent to you.) QUOTE: "Still, as you pointed out, it would be very difficult to predict that YHOO is going to be around for sure in 20 years."
How did we know this early in GE or IBM's lief [sic] that they were going to be around 20 years? How do we know Whole Foods is going to be around. I think with any company there is a bit of speculation don't you think?
Do we have to wait for a comapny [sic] to be around 20 years to know that it is a good company to invest in?
Here's what I told him:
Excellent question: How can we know that a business will be around in twenty years?
It's all about the first three Ms. And in this case it's most particularly about the Moat.
And here's the correct question: Do I know enough about Yahoo!'s industry and business to be fine with this being my only investment, say, for the the next 20 years? Like I'd put the money in and forget about it.
To do that, the business has to be both predictable and durable since I'm expecting it to continue to be a great business in twenty years. The problem comes with trying to make that kind of a decision about a technology business.
Technology changes can come out of nowhere and destroy what appears to be a solid Moat. That is a lot less likely to happen suddenly to strong consumer brands, companies with switching monopolies, toll bridge products, low pricing power or products protected by patents.
You've made the case for YHOO having brand and switching moats, but do you understand how YHOO is making money and plans on making it in the future?
That's what I'd dig in on next if I were you. I'd want to really be sure that YHOO is not on the slippery slope with Google and Microsoft up there ready to let loose some sort of technology avalanche.
Regarding GE and IBM: GE is such a huge conglomerate that I'd have to be a lot smarter than I am to know how to predict their future, except to just hope it's like the past. And IBM -- another tech company that ruled the world but didn't see the PC revolution coming. And it's still trying to catch up.
I'd say these kinds of businesses are pretty much advanced. And as attractive as the price to value looks to us, knowing the business and industry well enough to be sure you've made a good call is more important... because otherwise it's impossible to put a decent value on the stock.
Now go play,
Phil
